Not yet Bush of the Balkans, December
26th 2001
by Jeffrey T. Kuhner
Croatia is poised to spearhead a broad-based conservative movement in the
Balkans. Ivo Sanader, the leader of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), the
country's main opposition party, came to Washington last week and spoke about
his vision for the future. An admirer of President Bush's "compassionate
conservatism," Mr. Sanader stressed that he will implement a sweeping agenda
of tax cuts, smaller government and economic deregulation should he become
Croatia's next prime minister.
This is precisely what this small Balkan country of 4.5 million needs at
the moment. And the fact that economic conservatism is being championed by
the head of the HDZ is even more remarkable.
The party's founder, former President Franjo Tudjman, led Croatia's
bloody drive for independence from Yugoslavia in 1991. Mr. Tudjman's regime,
however, was criticized by many in the West for its authoritarian rule and
rampant economic cronyism, in which public assets were plundered by the HDZ
elite.
Although a principled nationalist who secured an independent Croatian
state in the face of Serbian aggression, Mr. Tudjman had a poor economic
record characterized by bureaucratic statism and pervasive corruption.
Following his death in December 1999, the HDZ was swept from power and a
center-left coalition government was elected on a platform of democratic
reform and forging closer links with the West.
Yet the new administration in Zagreb has been unable to resolve
Croatia's economic crisis. Unemployment is at 23 percent, and the country is
saddled with a nearly $10 billion foreign debt. Its annual per capita income
is slightly more than $4,000, which is half that of neighboring Slovenia, and
only 60 percent of what it was prior to independence.
After revamping the HDZ into a Croatian version of the Republican
Party, Mr. Sanader now seeks to use the electorate's growing frustration with
the government's stalled agenda to form a center-right coalition that will
capture power if early elections are called next year. His goal is to
transform Croatia into a bastion of free-market capitalism that will serve as
a model for the rest of the Balkans.
Borrowing from the playbook of President Bush and Italian Prime
Minister Silvio Berlusconi, Mr. Sanader rightly argues that the best way to
kick start Croatia's anemic economy is to slash income and business taxes,
remove burdensome government regulations and reduce public spending.
Unlike Mr. Tudjman, Mr. Sanader is not a fiery Balkan blood-and-soil
nationalist, but a Reaganite conservative who understands that Croatia has
the potential to become one of the most prosperous countries in Europe and a
force for democracy and human rights in the war-torn former Yugoslavia.
Yet Mr. Sanader will never accomplish his political objectives until he
does something no Croatian politician has been willing to do since the
country gained its independence: confront the communist past.
Few people in Eastern Europe suffered under the iron grip of communism
as much as the Croats. During the period of Tito's totalitarian rule from
1945 until his death in 1980, hundreds of thousands of Croat writers,
priests, peasants and dissidents were murdered or sent to prison.
Rather than face up to this bloody legacy, Croatia's political leaders
have chosen to sweep communism's crimes under the rug. The result is that the
country's political and economic development has been stunted by a lingering
neo-Marxist mindset.
The communist influence can be found everywhere. Croatia's President
Stipe Mesic and Prime Minister Ivica Racan are ex-communists who have never
apologized for their shadowy pasts. Many who worked for Yugoslavia's
notorious secret police have not been fired from their positions, but
continue to be employed in Croatia's intelligence services.
The country's economic life remains rife with Soviet-style bribery and
cronyism. Trapped in a Titoist time-warp, many ordinary Croatians still do
not understand that a free-market economy depends upon social habits such as
self-reliance, a strong work ethic and personal responsibility — virtues that
were almost eradicated by decades of communist social engineering.
Hence, if Mr. Sanader is serious about leading a conservative
revolution in the Balkans then he must start by immediately implementing
sweeping decommunization. The massive public bureaucracy, which is dominated
by the old guard opposed to economic reform, must be dismantled. A legal
framework needs to be created that will protect private property rights and
the rule of law, encouraging entrepreneurship and the creation of investment
capital. Most importantly, Croatia's next leader must wage a vigorous
campaign against corruption.
It is a tall order. But if Mr. Sanader wants to claim the mantle of Mr.
Reagan and Lady Thatcher, he must first adopt the anti-communism of these
conservative icons. Only then will he succeed in becoming the Bush of the
Balkans.
Jeffrey T. Kuhner is an assistant national editor at The Washington Times
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